Five years ago, on January 1, 2002, twelve European
countries introduced the banknotes and coins of their
new currency, the euro, and began withdrawing the old
national currencies. It was a huge, historic step,
marking the physical arrival of the euro in people’s
hands and purses, and the end of the Belgian Franc, the
German Mark, the Greek Drachma, the Spanish Peseta, the
French Franc, the Irish Punt, the Italian Lira, the
Luxembourgish Franc, the Dutch Guilder, the Austrian
Schilling, the Portuguese Escudo, and the Finnish Markka.
As of 2007, Slovenia became the thirteenth member of
the Euro Area.
That’s an impressive list, and the introduction of the
euro was a staggering achievement – there are now 11
billion bills in circulation and 68 billion coins. The
majority of those were put into circulation in just a
few weeks, starting on New Year’s Day, 2002, while
corresponding national bills and coins were being
collected.
A
single currency offers huge economies of scale and opens
the door to greater stability of prices, ideally at
lower interest rates than previously achieved. At the
same time, it eliminates exchange rate risk, for both
consumers and businesses, and enhances price
transparency. That means both customers and investors
can choose to put their money where it makes most sense
to do so, and the economy itself becomes more efficient
and less wasteful. The flipside of the efficient
allocation of resources is the removal of certain tools
that can soften the adjustments between the countries
that now have the same currency – no more fluctuating
exchange rates, no differentiated interest rates to
influence investment or consumption decisions, to adjust
competitiveness between countries competing for
business. The same money, and a single short-term
interest rate for all.
As a bonus, 300 million residents and countless visitors
can now travel around the 13 countries of the Euro Area
with just one type of money in their pockets – no more
changing money at the borders, and no more paying the
fees to change it. The euro enables the European Union’s
single market to start really looking like a single
economic area, and Europe gains a recognizable identity
in international financial markets.
With these benefits on offer, it seemed too good an
opportunity to miss, and so in 1992 the timetable was
set, with the final deadline for the creation of the
euro set for January 1, 1999, with the cash coming into
circulation three years later. Then the real work began.
The successful introduction of the euro depended upon
the “convergence” of the economies of the participating
countries – key features of economic performance need to
be similar enough to function together with a single
interest rate and fixed exchange rates. There were
regular checks on progress towards achieving similar
performance on inflation and interest rates, as well as
stabilizing exchange rates near the point where they
would be fixed. Finally, since this is how the interest
rate most directly affects governments, as well as a
key area underlying the need for different interest
rates in the different Member States, progress on
achieving sound and sustainable public finances was
measured.
Every Member State that met the “convergence criteria”
would adopt the euro, and 12 nations converted their
banknotes and coins to the euro in 2002.
Fatigue from the effort of getting public finances into
shape in the late 1990s, followed by the recession
triggered by the end of the dotcom boom, left a large
number of countries struggling to meet the commitments
of the Stability and Growth Pact – namely keeping annual
deficits below 3% of GDP and bringing debt down towards
the 60% reference value.
The strains triggered a great deal of debate over
whether it was appropriate to pursue budgetary cuts in a
period of recession, particularly in countries where
unemployment levels were already relatively high. In the
end, it was decided that some additional leeway could be
given in cases where unexpectedly poor economic
conditions caused budgetary problems; but also that
efforts to get the finances in order in the good times
would be reinforced.
Now it looks like we have reached the good times, and so
the countries that experienced real budgetary
difficulties are now being held to their promise to put
things right before the next recession comes along. This
is important because all the countries that share the
euro also share a single short term interest rate – this
reflects economic conditions for the Euro Area as a
whole, rather then any individual country, and that
means that one country’s impact on the interest rate has
an effect on the entire Euro Area. Of course, the bigger
the economy of that country, the bigger the impact.
But it isn’t just budgetary policy that can affect
neighboring countries – the structure of the economy has
a huge impact, both domestically and at the aggregate
European level. The EU is pursuing its “Lisbon agenda”
for reforming its markets to make them more efficient
and increase growth rates, and these policies have
particular resonance for Euro Area countries, as market
rigidities can prevent the efficient allocation of
resources and impede economic growth. More than five
years into what was to be a ten-year program, there
remains much to be done, even if some impressive reforms
have been implemented and are beginning to bear fruit.
As for the euro itself, after five years in people’s
hands, pockets and purses, it seems extremely well
established. Fifty-nine percent of those polled report
that they have no problems at all using the euro, and
the figure is increasing year by year.
The future holds great challenges, not least the
enlargement of the Euro Area to include the ten
countries that joined the EU in 2004. So the fifth
anniversary of the introduction of banknotes and coins
brings the first new set of coins. Almost all other EU
countries have declared their ambition to adopt the euro
before another five years pass. This will alter the
composition of the Euro Area’s economy and make the
definition of its common policies even more challenging.
But then, nobody ever said
the single currency was going to be easy. The EU has
always proceeded by setting itself tough challenges and
rising to meet them. This time around, the challenges
are complex and the stakes are high. In addition, the
final responsibility for the key decisions on economic
policy, on the key reforms required to make things work,
are in the hands of the individual Member States. It’s
an EU classic – it is time to recognize the benefits of
collective endeavor, above and beyond a strict
interpretation of the national interest. Time to look
clearly into the future and build the Europe that we
need.